Renato's Weather Blog

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog!

I don't know if you guys have seen my facebook statuses lately, but I have been ("hyping") up a storm potential for the 20th-25th. If you did see my facebook status today, this is what I posted:

"thinks cold front/miller b action on 10-11th, lakes cutter to change pattern on 14-15th and then first arctic blast+ potential storm around 20-25th" (Me).

Well lets take a look at the recent 18z GFS (only because 00z GFS will start in about an hour and I don't want to use 12z GFS this late). Then I will show 12z Euro for this timeframe (only up to 240 hours):

For the 10/11th storm:

As you can see, the 18z GFS does not show alot but showing a wave of low pressure and then bombing out near New England  is a classic signature of a Miller B type event (as it reforms off the lakes cutter low pressure). This could be another potential snow event for the higher elevations, but at this point its doubtful because I think it will be too warm around the region. I also would not be surprised to see some convection from this storm so maybe some thunderstorms are possible.

Here's what the 12z Euro is showing:

Just by looking at the temps across Northern NJ, the Euro is showing a colder solution for inland areas. The Euro jumps from 120-144hrs so we can't tell what would happen in between. But, it looks like a colder solution than the GFS at this point.

Instead of just looking at the models and try to "wishcast", I have been learning how to read the teleconnections (NAO, PNA, AO) and use that along with the models to see when our next potential storm can be. I'm still not too good with these connections, but in order to have the ingredients for a potential snowstorm here in NJ, we need a -NAO (which results in colder temperatures due to Artic high), a +PNA (in order for the storm to take the right track (which is typically off the coast close to the benchmark)) and a -AO (which comes hand in hand with the NAO). Storms typically come when the NAO is about to switch from negative to positive so thats always a good indicator for when the next storm will be.

Here is what the NAO, PNA, and AO are supposed to be for the long range (based on Climate Prediction Center):

Looks like the storm on the 10th will fully change the NAO from positive into negative, and will continue until it looks like the 20th-25th(my date for the snowstorm).

PNA looks to be negative to neutral(and even closer to positive) towards that 20th date, so so far so good for snow lovers =).

Looks very similar to the NAO as the 10th storm will force the AO to go negative and then its tough to determine after that where it will set up.

This might be a little bit confusing for most people reading this (except us weather nerds of course haha) so I found this on Raleigh's weather site (special thanks to him as he has a great model site and is a very good forecaster as well):

18z GFS:

Change from positive to negative NAO comes on the 10th, then close to neutral on the 15th then trends negative all the way until the 20th when it starts trending back to positive. Looking at the 18z GFS it makes sense, because after the lakes cutter on the 15th, there is a cold outbreak across NJ and winter-like temps are shown.

With a negative PNA to about neutral at the end, it is very tough to get something going for the east coast. I can see the 10th because it slowly trends upwards toward neutral but at this point, not good enough. But, things can still happen even with a -PNA but not likely.

Based on the 18z GFS AO chart, looks like the 10th and especially around 20-25th period could be our best shots for this month in terms of snow.

Now, since the European model won the last snowstorm (with me of course), let see what it projects(can only look at the 10th and 15th storms due to it going only to 240 hrs):

Looks like the NAO switch happens a day earlier for the 10th storm, but other than that, its similar to the other NAO graphs.

Similar to the others again, with a mostly negative PNA.

Again, the AO is a very big indicator for me and looks like we got something brewing around the 10th for the area. Just remember though, it's an indicator for a STORM only, not indicative if it is a snowstorm or not.

I know I probably just confused a lot of people with this, but read the whole post slowly and if you have any questions, you can reach me at [email protected] or on my facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/pages/Renatos-Weather-Blog-in-dedication-to-BJ-Giannone/118688874864046?ref=ts

My final thoughts will still remain with my facebook status from earlier. A possible Miller B/cold front for the 9-10th (more like Miller B at this point), a lakes cutter event for the 15th (changing the overall pattern), and potential coastal storm for the 20-25th (snow potential possible).

Thanks and goodnight!