Renato's Weather Blog

Light blue=Coating-1"

Very light blue=1-3"

Dark purple=2-4"+

Light blue=3-6"

Very light blue=2-4"

Light purple=1-3" with some mixing possible

Light green=mostly mixed bag of rain/snow, no accumulation.

Green= mainly rain, maybe some frozen precip to start and end but expect .25-.75" of rain

Blue=some frozen precip for mainly interior sections here before changing over to rain. 1-3" is expected for these interior sections, while the rest will get .25-.75" of rain.

I'm now on twitter just for the blog at r2weatherblog. Full update with first discussion later

I am really worried about this storm as we are having freezing rain already in the area, creating slippery conditions. 

From my post yesterday: Ok I would never imagine myself as being a risk-taker. But, with my prediction for the second part of the storm (to be fully called tommorow), I am going out on a limb and saying that it will be a catastrophic ice storm for many people in this region. I advise you to get supplies in case the power does go out and please stay indoors for the next two days if you don't have anywhere to go. I also advise people in schools to close totally or as early as possible tommorow so that the people have time to get home safely. Since most of the precip will happen for most of the day wednesday, I recommend every one to stay home Wednesday and maybe even Thursday. People driving the next two days are also encourage to drive as slow as possible and to take extra time heading to your destination.

As I'm seeing right now, temperatures are 2-4 degrees colder across the area than projected on the weather models right now. Looks like once again, the models did not project the high pressure to be as strong as it is now. This will make a huge difference towards how long and even if we change over to plain rain. So here is my final call map, and I will be updating through out the night on this situation. Stay safe everyone!

Green=mostly rain, about an inch or more of rain expected

Dark blue=mostly rain, about an inch or more but not before .01-.10" of ice expected

Light blue=Mix of frozen precip and rain, about .10-.25" of ice expected

Red= All frozen precip more than .5" of ice accumulation expected

Green= <1" of accumulation

Light blue= 1-3"

Dark blue=2-4"

Light Purple=3-6"

Dark purple=6"+

Ok I would never imagine myself as being a risk-taker. But, with my prediction for the second part of the storm (to be fully called tommorow), I am going out on a limb and saying that it will be a catastrophic ice storm for many people in this region. I advise you to get supplies in case the power does go out and please stay indoors for the next two days if you don't have anywhere to go. I also advise people in schools to close totally or as early as possible tommorow so that the people have time to get home safely. Since most of the precip will happen for most of the day wednesday, I recommend every one to stay home Wednesday and maybe even Thursday. People driving the next two days are also encourage to drive as slow as possible and to take extra time heading to your destination.

Thank you and have a goodnight.

Dark green=Mainly rain with maybe some frozen precip to start. 1"+ of rain expected with <0.10" of frozen precip

Light green= Also mainly rain but looks like 1-2" of snow and sleet to start off before changing over. 1"+ of rain expected with about .10-.25 of frozen precip

Beige=Looks like a mixed bag over here in which we might see all kinds of precipitation, eventually turning into rain. 0.50" of rain, 2-4" of snow, .25 of ice

Light blue= Same as beige but more frozen with a late changeover to rain. 2-4" of snow, .25" of ice.

Darker blue= Mostly frozen with significant icing possible. 3-6" of snow with  >.25" of frozen precip (sleet/freezing rain)

Darkest blue= All frozen event with 6"+ of snow with >.25" of frozen precip

Timeline

Midnight tonight: First part of storm arrives

3AM-6PM: Majority of precip falls during this time

6PM-Midnight: Break in between first and second part

Midnight tommorow night: Second part of storm arrives

Midnight-7PM: Majority of precip falls

7-8PM: Storm over

Hello everyone and welcome back to the blog.

This next storm coming up has the potential to be a big storm for many in the region but not big like many of you are thinking. Before we get into the icestorm though, there is overrunning snow before the storm even arrives in the area. There is potential for a 3-6" snowfall for much of the day tuesday but some models are showing even more than that, so I will keep an eye on that. This will not be an all-snow event because we have (what I like to call) a lakes cutter turning into a coastal storm late in the stage. But with high pressure projected to be north of the area (in the "sweet spot"), most of the area can stay frozen for the duration of the event. With warm layers above the surface, we can sleet and freezing rain to even rain itself at times (not alot of rain is expected above southern central NJ).

I am currently expected a mainly late Monday PM to Tuesday PM all snow event and then all day Wednesday into early Thursday AM for the 2nd system. I will keep an eye on it to see if it stays all frozen or not. If it does, I can see alot of school closings and early dismissals tuesday as well. Maybe even multiple days of closings.

Light Green=3-6"

Light Blue=6-12"

Red=12"+

Verification map (From NWS)

looks like my map was pretty good except in a couple of spots.

a) Cape may area got less than the 3-6" I got.

b) Most people North and west on my map got more than the 3-6" alloted to them and I should have extended the 6-12" to 12"+ line more North and west than what they were. But, most totals around the NYC metro area are greater than 12" so I am pretty happy that I got the banding right.